Can Mayo lose to Donegal but still progress? All permutations explained

There’s no two ways about it: Next Sunday’s tie against Donegal is essentially win or bust for Mayo.

Going into the All-Ireland Series, there was some sentiment that losing to Galway in the Connacht Final ensured that the men donned in green and red had avoided Dublin, Derry, and Armagh in the ‘Group of Death’.

READ MORE: Longford star with Mayo links records man-of-the-match display

However, that wasn’t what transpired. Far from it. Every side in Mayo’s group has felt both the sweet taste of victory and swallowed the bitter pill of defeat.

Now, with fleets of cars heading for both the Hyde and Brester Park, every side could either finish top of the pile, be preparing for a preliminary quarter final, or endure a long summer of regret.

Here, we’ve given you the permutations of every series of results that could unfold as the Group Stage reaches its climax.

This is how they stand after two out of three matches:

Mayo win, Tyrone win

If the Green and Red topple Donegal, and Tyrone get the better of Cavan in Brewster Park, then Mayo will top the group in first place, and automatically secure a quarter-final spot.

Tyrone will end the group in second, missing out on first due to their loss to Mayo.

Donegal will progress in third, with the Breffni finishing rock-bottom due to their battering from Donegal.

Mayo win, Cavan win

Should Mayo beat Donegal and Cavan pull off another upset, then Mayo will advance to the preliminary quarter-finals in second place, securing a home game in the next round.

Cavan would finish the day top by virtue of their unexpected victory over Kevin McStay’s side, with Tyrone in third place, and Donegal staring at a shock exit because of their Round One loss to Tyrone.

READ MORE: Opinion - Mayo bounce back but face huge challenge against Donegal

Mayo win, Cavan and Tyrone draw

If Mayo get one over on McGuinness’ charges, and the Tyrone-Cavan game ends all square, then Mayo will end the day top of the table.

Tyrone would progress in second place ahead of the Breffni men based on score difference, while Donegal would be in fourth.

Mayo lose, Tyrone win

Should the men from the hills defeat Mayo, and Tyrone prevail, Mayo will end the day rock bottom because of their loss to Cavan earlier in the campaign.

Cavan would be in third, Donegal would progress in second place, and Tyrone would secure their place in the last eight.

Mayo lose, Cavan win

If Mayo succumb to Donegal, while Cavan emerge from the fire with the win under their belt, then Mayo will survive by the skin of their teeth due to the head-to-head with Tyrone, who would end up propping up the table.

Cavan would end in second, while Donegal would progress.

Mayo lose, Cavan and Tyrone draw

Should Donegal edge out Mayo, while the Red Hands and Cavan record a share of the spoils, then Mayo will be exiting via stage left.

Cavan would be third, due to their inferior points difference, with Tyrone in second spot. Donegal would be the ones with a week off to prepare for the quarter-finals.

READ MORE: All the Mayo club GAA games this weekend

Mayo and Donegal draw, Cavan or Tyrone win

Should Mayo and Donegal be inseparable by the end of the weekend, and either side emerges with the spoils from Enniskillen, then Mayo would finish in third place by virtue of score difference, with Donegal in second.

The winners of the Cavan-Tyrone tie would advance in top spot.

Both Mayo-Donegal and Cavan-Tyrone end in a draw

If both games were to finish level, then Donegal would end the day topping the group by virtue of score difference. Mayo would end in second, Tyrone in third, with Cavan exiting the Championship in last place.